Vote'12 - last call

VOTE 2012: After all that's been said and done ...

 

... here are my conclusions. They are remarkably different from what they would have been only six months ago, after a campaign and a series of events which have made this year's race for the White House and control of Congress not at all as dull as the (American) media wanted us to believe.

For me, the what I believed was a dismal record of President Obama, made the incumbent the clear underdog against a yet to be determined Republican contender back in January. Then came the crowning of Mitt Romney, and the race suddenly became wide open again for me. The appalling course of impotence and incompetence in the "European Union" during the past 2 years also helped me to put the perceived failures of the Obama administration into perspective. Strangely, the Democrat in the White House has actually shown remarkable stewardship during the global financial crisis and - astounding for a man of his youth and previous inexperience in government - calm yet swiftly acting leadership in a world marked by chaos and panic from a slowly dying "European Union." It makes Obama today the clear favorite to win re-election by a margin that will surprise many. Obama's popularity in Europe is based on the relative strength and leadership quality at play in America, compared to the listless drift of the Old Continent towards the abyss.

I now expect Obama to win by a 4.5% margin of the popular vote, with a majority of 145 votes in the Electoral College.

Back in January I also expected that the current 53:47 Democratic majority in the US Senate would be reversed into a 2-3 seat majority for the Republicans. Somehow I still hope for that, but it must not come at the cost of seeing a nutter like Todd Akin be elected as Rep senator for Missouri, who fails on such fundamental issues such as biology and reproduction, and what constitutes rape and its consequences. Equally repugnant was the way how a distinguished senator from Indiana, long-serving Richard Lugar, was ousted by the irrational Tea Party wing of the Republican Party, a scary (and scare-mongering) fringe grouping on the far right. I am inclined to wish upon the failure to reach a Republican majority in the Senate after days of agonizing count and re-count of election results in Indiana.

In the end I see a 50-50 balance in the Senate, a numerical deadlock that VP Joe Biden will have to break on occasion. I do not expect a major change in the Republican hold of the House of Representatives.

For those undecided I would seriously suggest to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson for president.