It was a relatively nice weekend: Saturday was spent on the South Bank for a proper Spanish festival and half the night on board of the Hispaniola, rounding out a day fully in the realms of Latina culture.
Sunday, with the ominous weather forecast warning of a scorcher day (88F and 90% humidity), we fled from the city at 6am, heading for Brighton. Once there we boarded a friend's sailing yacht and spent a glorious day on the open sea, at times even out of sight of drab Angleterre. When we got home around 9pm, foresight paid off: I let the AC humming away all day to return to a nicely cooled home, in contrast to the sultry humidity outside.
- - -
FAST FORWARD:
It's vacation time, starting tomorrow. We'll hop on the Eurostar to Paris, and travel down south to Villefranche-sur-Mer, where the big day - OUR big day - will be on Sunday. We heard from Emily's parents that guests are already flocking in, making a mini-vacation out of the event.
On Monday we board a plane to Rome and on to Cape Town. The excitement builds, the travel plans there all set in stone, to show Emily the lure of Africa. Beautiful days ahead in the African winter, when the morning greets us with 40F and shrouds of fog, only to burn off by noon and revealing SA's undiluted beauty in bright sunshine and pleasant temp's. Fuck England, eh?
Back around July 17th...
Monday 27 June 2011
Saturday 25 June 2011
(London) Weekend
We're at this festivity from 2-4pm:
RIOJA TAPAS FANTASTICAS
A spectacular variety of red, white and rose wines from some of Rioja's most famous vineyards will be at Potters Field Park (South Bank) to taste while we make make our way around the wine and tapas stalls. And we'll savour a selection of tapas from London's finest Spanish restaurants who will recreate the famous tapas streets of the Rioja region where you can go from bar to bar sampling a speciality dish and glass of delicious local wine in each. Plenty of entertainment – live Spanish music, cookery demonstrations, wine tasting workshops and wine walks and an unforgettable eating and drinking experience.
Evening/night plans are in flux, depending... ahem... how illuminating the mini-España turns out...
Evening/night plans are in flux, depending... ahem... how illuminating the mini-España turns out...
Tuesday 21 June 2011
Friday 17 June 2011
Let Greece Go Under!
Eurozone better off without Greece
A Plea Against a Bail-out
I am only peripherally involved in the deliberations over a possible bail-out of bankrupt Greece, yet in the eye of the hurricane regardless. As part of a team of experts in the OECD delegation, and soon to be permanently residing in Paris, I am a known hawk, supporting the idea to let Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Belgium go under, force them to declare bankruptcy and be kicked out of the eurozone immediately. With its sovereign debt rated already on the level of Somali, Comoros Islands and Chad, Greece must not be bailed out by anyone else but France and Germany - providing their taxpayers embrace Sarkozy's and Merkel's fantasist plans. The bail-out of Greece would cost about $400 Billion, a sum only the Paris-Berlin axis powers should shoulder.
After all the papering over, the fudging and the hopes that defied experience comes the day of reckoning. Just over a year ago Greece was bailed out with a fund of 170bn dollar. Paris & Berlin were enthusiastic and content that the amount would suffice. It did not, by a long shot.
The country's problems were adjudged to be ones of illiquidity. They were not. Greece was, and is, insolvent. All that has happened since is that Greece's debt burden has risen. There was a slight reduction in the budget deficit but targets were missed. In the meantime the economy - apart from the tourist industry - has gone into freefall. The austerity prescription has not worked. Since the bail-out, 400,000 have joined the unemployment lines.
A year on it is impossible to disguise the reality of the crisis. The tensions are tearing away at the fabric of Greek society and at the foundations of the European Union. President Sarkozy, dubbed a miniature Napoleon by the media, betrayed the tension when he said: "Without the euro there is no Europe and without Europe there is no possible peace and security." Can't get more idiotic and absurd than that!
In raising the stakes to make this a crisis about peace in Europe he is trying to frighten European leaders. The French president's fear is almost certainly exaggerated, definitely delusional. There is no threat to security!
The euro would survive - even strengthen - the exit of Greece; the European Union existed before the euro and no doubt would survive a contraction the euro-zone. Would there have to be a re-think about where the EU was heading? You bet, but many would welcome that anyway.
The likely proposition will involve a bail-out mark 2. More austerity will be imposed with the hope that somewhere down the road Greece finds the growth to reduce its debt burden. But, as I have written before, almost no economist believes it is possible, which does not prevent the rampantly madmen of the eurozone, from a daft EU commissioner down to the PM of pea-size Luxembourg to believe that hell is about to freeze over.
Even if Greece were to deliver on its proposed privatizations, even if it were to discover growth of 3% (currently -5%), even if there was to be a voluntary restructuring by private investors, even if the government were to deliver on savings, it would only dent the $465 Billion debt mountain.
So a default will be postponed now but will be back on the agenda later; a replay of the past 12 months. In the meantime private investors will shun Greek bonds, leading to interest rates for new debt 15%.
When (not if) the default comes, it will be European governments and their taxpayers who will take the hit.
A Plea Against a Bail-out
I am only peripherally involved in the deliberations over a possible bail-out of bankrupt Greece, yet in the eye of the hurricane regardless. As part of a team of experts in the OECD delegation, and soon to be permanently residing in Paris, I am a known hawk, supporting the idea to let Portugal, Greece, Ireland and Belgium go under, force them to declare bankruptcy and be kicked out of the eurozone immediately. With its sovereign debt rated already on the level of Somali, Comoros Islands and Chad, Greece must not be bailed out by anyone else but France and Germany - providing their taxpayers embrace Sarkozy's and Merkel's fantasist plans. The bail-out of Greece would cost about $400 Billion, a sum only the Paris-Berlin axis powers should shoulder.
After all the papering over, the fudging and the hopes that defied experience comes the day of reckoning. Just over a year ago Greece was bailed out with a fund of 170bn dollar. Paris & Berlin were enthusiastic and content that the amount would suffice. It did not, by a long shot.
The country's problems were adjudged to be ones of illiquidity. They were not. Greece was, and is, insolvent. All that has happened since is that Greece's debt burden has risen. There was a slight reduction in the budget deficit but targets were missed. In the meantime the economy - apart from the tourist industry - has gone into freefall. The austerity prescription has not worked. Since the bail-out, 400,000 have joined the unemployment lines.
A year on it is impossible to disguise the reality of the crisis. The tensions are tearing away at the fabric of Greek society and at the foundations of the European Union. President Sarkozy, dubbed a miniature Napoleon by the media, betrayed the tension when he said: "Without the euro there is no Europe and without Europe there is no possible peace and security." Can't get more idiotic and absurd than that!
In raising the stakes to make this a crisis about peace in Europe he is trying to frighten European leaders. The French president's fear is almost certainly exaggerated, definitely delusional. There is no threat to security!
The euro would survive - even strengthen - the exit of Greece; the European Union existed before the euro and no doubt would survive a contraction the euro-zone. Would there have to be a re-think about where the EU was heading? You bet, but many would welcome that anyway.
The likely proposition will involve a bail-out mark 2. More austerity will be imposed with the hope that somewhere down the road Greece finds the growth to reduce its debt burden. But, as I have written before, almost no economist believes it is possible, which does not prevent the rampantly madmen of the eurozone, from a daft EU commissioner down to the PM of pea-size Luxembourg to believe that hell is about to freeze over.
Even if Greece were to deliver on its proposed privatizations, even if it were to discover growth of 3% (currently -5%), even if there was to be a voluntary restructuring by private investors, even if the government were to deliver on savings, it would only dent the $465 Billion debt mountain.
So a default will be postponed now but will be back on the agenda later; a replay of the past 12 months. In the meantime private investors will shun Greek bonds, leading to interest rates for new debt 15%.
When (not if) the default comes, it will be European governments and their taxpayers who will take the hit.
Wednesday 15 June 2011
FACEBOOK FACES MASS DESERTIONS
The anti-social platform Facebook has reached its pinnacle and is on a steep decline. Last month nearly 6mn Americans were driven away from FB, and its spying intrusions into the lives of its members, often in clandestine and deliberate circumvention of privacy laws. The drop of membership, also spectacular in countries like Norway, Russia and Britain, will put a damper on FB plans for an IPO, cutting the expected profit of FB by more than $2.2 billion. Good news for users, if FB faces the endgame soon.
Already, to admit FB membership has evolved into an act of humiliatio, self-flagellation and embarrassment, as FB has mainly become the favourite platform of geeks, nerds, welfare recipients and criminals on the prowl. Educated and economically savvy users are deserting the site in throngs, leaving behind a low-class group of aimless and purposeless insomniacs and heavily sedated or otherwise drugged rodents with an attention span that can be measured only in nanoseconds.
Gallery of typical FB users (who also happen to be AOL members):
Tuesday 14 June 2011
Friday 10 June 2011
Sunday 5 June 2011
Saturday 4 June 2011
(London) Weekend
Things are moving along splendidly: recovered from one-day nightmare in Edinburgh (what a friggin' dump that!); frolicked during lunch breaks in the sun (naturally it's gone as the weekend approached), had fun with BJ and the crew last night - outdoors, in 25 degrees! - and enjoyed tremendously the event and concert at Elgar's birthplace on the 2nd. 't was brilliant!!
Emily returns to Paris tomorrow, and things will quickly heat up then. All plans are iron-cast, the guest invites mailed (and in some cases hand delivered) and the stage set for July 2. The countdown to turn my back on this 3rd World reservation mockingly called Great Britain has commenced.
Emily returns to Paris tomorrow, and things will quickly heat up then. All plans are iron-cast, the guest invites mailed (and in some cases hand delivered) and the stage set for July 2. The countdown to turn my back on this 3rd World reservation mockingly called Great Britain has commenced.
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