Ten Days to Brown-Out

Boost in Polls for Conservatives
Return of Ken Clarke
Forebodes Gordon's End

The bliss of a long weekend with Emily was matched with a Saturday meeting with one of the most distinguished and celebrated workhorses the Tories can claim: Ken Clarke is about to return to Government in a senior position. The re-emergence of Ken, so desperately demanded from Party Leader Cameron for the past 2 months, virtually assures that the reign of Labour is about to end. Under Ken's direction, the Tories have quietly negotiated with the LibDems that, in the case of a hung parliament, a close cooperation between the two parties could even lead to a formal coalition government - a rarity in Britain.

Late polls indicate that the Conservatives have support of 37.1% of voters, the LibDems 29.0% and Labour 26.0%. This would translate into a House of Commons with
310 Conservative MPs,
224 Labour seats,
88 LibDem seats and
28 others (Scotland, Ulster)

which would mean a Tory majority short of 16 seats of overall control.

The idea is to offer the LibDems an electoral system reform which would depart from the "winner takes all"  to the proportional electoral system widely used in Europe in exchange for LibDem support for a Tory minority government or even a coalition. It would finish with the absurdity that parliamentary seats can be won with as little as 25% of the vote, if other parties fail to surpass that benchmark. It also would end the huge lead that Labour will still hold over the LibDems despite a third-place finish.

While it will make single-party governments in future much harder to achieve (as a majority of 49-50% of the popular vote will be needed), there is also something for the Conservative Party to gain from a change of the voting: currently, the Tories need around 63,000 votes to capture a seat in the Commons, while Labour seats are much "cheaper" - only 27,000 votes for each Labour seat on average. That explains why currently the Tories have to finish ahead by at least 4.5% in the popular vote to be level with Labour seats in Parliament.

From this side: full backing for Ken Clarke's return to the Party's leadership and future Government, support for the idea of rapprochement with the LibDems and the price to pay: electoral reform.

Current Music (linked): Zebda – Y'A Pas D'Arrangement