Tuesday 24 January 2012

US Vote 2012: My prediction (and endorsement)

PREDICTION AND ENDORSEMENT FOR THE RIGHT PRESIDENT

This is probably the first prediction for the November election winner you'll see. The global state of affairs and the domestic situation in the US make the choice surprisingly easy, despite - or because - of the silly hoopla of a persiflage of Primaries to crown a Republican presidential candidate and the near-panic stalemate of Democrats in Congress, painfully laboring not to upset or undermine their man in the White House.

The world is vastly different into the fourth year of President Obama, just as his predecessor saw fundamental change and upheaval - wars included - during his 8-year term. At the end, President George Bush left a US weakened abroad, and on the brink at home. Decades of progress to evolve America into a balanced, peaceful and encompassing society were shattered, and as a result incumbent Obama inherited a country deeply divided and agonized.

The first 2 years of the current presidency have been a nightmare, and the core reasons will perpetuate well into the next few years. In many ways, the United States entered unchartered territory with the near collapse of the financial market and the burst bubble of an unsustainable housing industry. The Administration's response - barred of the chance to follow textbook prescriptions - has been jittery and agonizingly slow, partly for the simple reason that it HAD to get things right, there was no room for error. In my view, as an economist, the Obama administration passed the unprecedented test. The jury is still out to pass final approval, as only time will tell whether the programs initiated by the government will gain lasting traction. For now there is ample reason for cautious optimism that they will work.

Or will they? Even with a maximum of doubt applied, the Republican Party fails to rally behind a leader who demonstrates a vision for America, and an answer for the myriad of problems at home and abroad. Radical (no, outright extremist) banter only imperils the progress already achieved, and surely will lead to further isolation of the US on the international stage. The vitriolic language used by the "frontrunners" of the GOP is plain frightening; all of them seem to suffer from Tourette's Syndrome.

Consequently my prediction will see President Barack Obama re-elected in November, gaining a majority of 36-48 votes in the Electoral College. The sitting president will get a majority of the popular vote of 52.8 per cent. He has my full endorsement.

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