2012 Predictions

PREDICTIONS FOR 2012

Here are my predictions for what promises to be another tumultuous year of big events that will shape the world for years to come

Potentially new leaders in all Superpowers will come into office, adding uncertainty and polarisation of global conflicts.

A new leader will be acclaimed in Communist China;

A new (but familiar) leader will occupy the Kremlin: Vladimir Putin;

A new French president, the socialist Hollande, will be elected, together with a new French National Assembly, with a distinctly anti-euro bias;

Sarkozy will sink into obscurity other than legal proceedings might haunt him soon;

The German government will collapse after a rebellion within the junior coalition partner FDP; the next German chancellor will be socialist Steinmayer;

Pickering from its junior partner, and favourable polls, will encourage British PM David Cameron to call snap elections and - will win big;

Surprise in the US: Obama re-elected as president, but both Houses will go Republican, repeating the uneasy but positive cohabilitation similar to the Clinton administrations;

Showdown at the UN over Iran as Russia and China give support to their buddy, prompting the US to give (secretly) green light to Israel to mount pre-emptive strikes against the renegade nuclear peril, supporting Israel publically afterwards;

Western democracies declare war on the Revolutionary Guards in Iran;

The Syrian president will end up dangling from a lamp post in the city of Homs, ending more than 45 years of dictatorship;

Burma will make a spectacular return to the democratic fold, with the military junta stepping aside, some of them will end up in exile in the US;

Decimation of the eurozone: after the Greek election not even rates of 40% will attract takers for the country's bonds, and Greece officially declares insolvency and exit from the euro;

Italy will join Portugal to leave the eurozone, ending the "euro project"; plans will immediately be drawn for a "eurozone-II" with a hard core of 7-8 member states;

The eurozone of 17 will face more than six months of recession in 2012;

The euro will drop to around $1.10 in the first half, but rebound under a new eurozone-II agreement to close in December around $1.40;

The Olympic Games in London will be a huge success in the wake of Britain's largest security operation in her history;

Sepp Blatter will be forced to step down from FIFA post, to be arrested, finger-printed and put on trial for corruption, extortion and bribery;

The EU will face a year of stalemate: military confrontation after Turkey imposes a quarantine over Cyprus which will take over the "EU Presidency" in July;

London mayor Boris Johnson will be re-elected with 59.4%, boosting his chances for a Tory leadership role in future;

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This will be a frightening year. It will be up to the arts, entertainment and sports world to provide some respite from the turmoil and belief in the superiority of man.