First exit polls in French vote

EXIT POLLS IN PARIS INDICATE CLOSE RACE FOR VICTORY BETWEEN HOLLANDE (30.5%) AND SARKOZY (26.3%), WITH LE PEN RUNNING DISTANT THIRD (16.0%)

The margin of error is 4.5% due to the small sample of voters questioned (200); a very low turnout is expected, 45-55% of the electorate. Only 29% of the 44 million eligible voters have gone to the polls by 12:30; all candidates have already voted.

At 12:49 Dominique Strauss-Kahn, until a year ago absolute favourite to beat Sarkozy, voted. What were his thoughts? Former president (and predecessor of Sarkozy) Jacques Chirac said: "I will vote for Hollande."

First poll from French Polynesia, which closed polling three hours ago, not indicative for outcome of presidential election. But it needs to be published to undermine French laws prohibiting publication of polls and results before 8pm Paris time, under the threat of $100,000 in fines. I defy that pathetic directive, posting from the 5th Arr. in Paris.

The overseas French dominion historically favors... incumbents, so the support for Sarkozy comes as no surprise. None of the candidates campaigned in New Caledonia.

Sarkozy: 36.7%
Hollande: 28.2%
Bayrou: 13.2%
Le Pen: 9.1%
Mèlenchon: 8.2%

More representative is a poll taken yesterday at 5PM in selective French cities:
Hollande: 31.1%
Sarkozy: 24.2%
LePen: 17.6%
Mèlenchon: 13.8%
Bayrou: 10.2%See More