US Vote 2012: My prediction (and endorsement)

PREDICTION AND ENDORSEMENT FOR THE RIGHT PRESIDENT

This is probably the first prediction for the November election winner you'll see. The global state of affairs and the domestic situation in the US make the choice surprisingly easy, despite - or because - of the silly hoopla of a persiflage of Primaries to crown a Republican presidential candidate and the near-panic stalemate of Democrats in Congress, painfully laboring not to upset or undermine their man in the White House.

The world is vastly different into the fourth year of President Obama, just as his predecessor saw fundamental change and upheaval - wars included - during his 8-year term. At the end, President George Bush left a US weakened abroad, and on the brink at home. Decades of progress to evolve America into a balanced, peaceful and encompassing society were shattered, and as a result incumbent Obama inherited a country deeply divided and agonized.

Wikipedia Black-Out

In agreement and solidarity with Wikipedia, this site will be blacked-out until Thursday, 19 January, 10am GMT.

Scottish Independence?

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE? NOT SO FAST!

When Scottish First Minister Alexander Salmond thought aloud of a referendum to gain independence for Scotland ten days ago, the British Government called his bluff: Prime Minister Cameron demanded a referendum "as soon as possible," with only one question asked, "independence - yes or no." Grudgingly, Salmond set a date for the referendum in autumn 2014.

 

The consequences for Scotland, in case of a YES vote, will be grave and significant. But as latest polls show, the majority of Scots want to remain in the UK, while a clear majority in England, plagued by high and unfair subsidies for Scotland, favour Scotland to leave the UK. Alexander Salmond will have to do a lot of convincing ahead of the treacherous plebiscite.

 

In the past few weeks the Scottish "government" sounded out with the UK Chancellory whether Scotland will keep a monetary union with England and can retain the British Pound as its currency. At the time I was part of a 65-men group advising George Osborne in a feasibility study of monetary consequences if the UK splits up. The result pours more cold water on Scottish aspirations: it would either severely undermine Scottish independence in fiscal matters - more so than it does today! - or, more likely, lead to an end of the British pound as legal tender in Scotland. A Scottish pound would immediately devalue by 20-30 per cent, and any desire of Scotland to adopt the euro would be blocked by London.

 

A classical case of being caught between a rock and a hard place, I'd say...

London Weekend

It was a brilliant evening at the Princess Alexandra Hall in London SW1A 1LR; I received warm applause and compliments that I, as a foreign born member, demonstrated such thorough insight and constructive ideas about how to go forward, towards a Scottish referendum and beyond. Picking up on the breaking news yesterday of mass-downgrades within the eurozone, which membership the Scottish National Party of First Minister Salmond flirts with, I pointed out that Scottish independence would lead to an immediate downgrade by 4 notches to the level of Ireland, and cost of 10-year 'government' bonds from Edinburgh would be currently at 4.8%, nearly 3 per cent above the UK level.

I also reminded the small number of Scots in the room that Scottish membership with the EU, and the eurozone, are subject to London's agreement (or veto, as is the more likely case, if peripheral negotiations should hit a snag).

 The event was supposedly followed by a 30-45 minute Q&A, which in fact lasted nearly 2 hours. We finally parted at 10:45 last night, and I took Emily then to Trader Vic's at the London Hilton. We stayed until 2am ... lol

Eurostar-ing

We will eurostar (used like a Verb) at noon to London, where I will appeal at a Tory club function to scrap the economic aid to Scotland with immediate effect. The estimated £26 billion of transfers due to Scotland until September 2014 should be kept in escrow and only released to Edinburgh if the planned referendum ends with a pledge to remain part of the UK. Also on the agenda is to prevent a Scottish grab of North Sea oil reserves and to recoup from a future Scottish nation all investments into the oil exploration of the past 40 years.

Otherwise, the London trip is reserved for undiluted fun and entertainment. It is also meant as a fact-finding mission whether Britain has still running water, hot water and electricity; nothing can be taken for granted in Europe's most antiquated country.

Oh so gay

HOW GAY: Fred Karger, a 61-year old gay activist, is running for the office of US President. His program for the march into the Rose Garden is based on a rather dull and narrow platform: gay rights, gay & lesbian issues and to change the Republican Party are the mainstay. About 9% of American voters are gay or lesbian, and he seems to speculate to collect all of their votes.

The candidacy of a gay person is rather normal and a non-event, until one makes it a showcase and runs a one-dimensional campaign that ignores the other 91% of voters. Mr Karger will get a lot of deserving ridicule and in the long run will damage gay interests far more than he does good.

Decimation of Iranian thugs

Another nuclear collaborator of Iran's atomic bomb program has been shredded today in a rather clever fashion. It's the sixth known nuclear weapons expert of the Revolutionary Guards who was desposed of.

Whoever is behind the campaign to liquidate such threats to world peace deserves admiration and full support.

Doomsday clock

DOOMSDAY CLOCK: maintained since 1947 by the board of directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists at the University of Chicago, today at 7PM CET the clock will be updated. Since January 2010 the hands show six minutes to 12 (for the eurozone the clock is 1 minute before 12)

The hands were moved closer to 12: it is 5 to 12!

Office Blues

'twas a nice surprise this morning on our (executive) floor, when a six-member band from New Orleans brought to life the staff of around 100 with a cool mix of Blue Grass and Dixie. It made for a welcome change of dull morning meetings dealing with economic growth (or, in the case of the eurozone, shrinking) and how to play catching-up with America.

Yet another French/German summit gone by

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spiegel.de%2Finternational%2Feurope%2F0%2C1518%2C808039%2C00.html&h=vAQEvozsnAQEYqL-wtxrxtCMKLzliDr0HRA7afvethoRPvg
"Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have once again shown a common front in the euro crisis, insisting that the euro zone is well on track to agreeing on binding debt rules, and papering over differences on the financial transaction tax..."

Which provoked my reaction:
Chelsea Dagger ‎"on track"??? Sarky & Murky manage to perpetuate unproductive and redundant summits in a desperate, but ultimately feeble attempt to gain time. They lambast the rating agencies, yet quote verbatim the demands of these independent judges of economic mayhem how to resolve the crisis. Ignorance is bliss, and the head-in-the-sand posturing of the Little Man in Paris has become the source of penultimate entertainment. What's next? How about a tax that will further diminish economic activity in the eurozone and shift capital and jobs towards other, more liberated centers.

Moonpic

Jardin du Luxembourg, at 5:48PM

eurozone turmoil

EUROZONE TURMOIL: From the French-German meeting in Berlin, more blah-blah European-style summit gurgles; nothing new beyond, "We are aware of the seriousness and make progress to solve the crisis." How? Silence from Sarkozy and Murky.

Now there's an even greater likelihood of Greece soon to be removed from the eurozone.

 Just how bad are things? European banks do not even lend to each other out of mutual (and justifiable) distrust. So they "invest" into German government bonds, even at negative interest rates [meaning, banks pay for lending money to Germany]!

Sarkozy's Desperation

France's miniature Napoleon Nicolas Sarkozy, a rather hapless and tragic figure when it comes to relationships with women, is not pathetic enough not to try exploiting yet another one: the heroine (and symbol) of the Front National, Jeanne d'Arc of Orleans, whose 600th anniversary of her birth is being celebrated today, is the latest unwitting victim of the president's fancy.

Sarkozy, trailing badly in the polls, hopes to boost his popularity on the back (or breasts) of a defenseless corpse, weeks after embracing German chancellor Merkel as his newly found mother, who so readily bestows her long lost son with milk, honey and money. In the meantime, his wife ridicules and demeans poor Nicolas in words and songs.... much to the amusement of a whole nation.

The opening salvo in the French election campaign has been fired off by socialist candidate François Hollande. In a restaurant (Chez Française) he described accurately the still undeclared candidate for the ruling party, lame-duck president Sarkozy, as "sale mec", literally a dirty guy but colloquially known as "nasty piece of work."

The president, in his distinctly cowardish style, tries to stay out of the political debate and plans to announce his candidature for re-election only after March 6, leaving him just 5 weeks of campaigning (and exposure to scrutiny from other candidates and media). Sarkozy is embattled even within his party for subordinating and humiliating the French Republic, reducing the Grande Nation to Berlin's lap poodle.

Iowa

IOWA CAUCUS ENDS WITH HUGE SURPRISE
AND A CLEAR WINNER

Even though it was a Republican poll, the big winner is sitting president Obama.

Establishing candidates Romney and Santorum as favourites now is suicidal for the elephant party's aspiration to reclaim the White House. Romney is a member of a sect that will force him to exercise a maximum of cronyism and boiler room dealings if elected, for which the American voter will have no appetite or tolerance. The PA senator Santorum is best summed up as a nutter, and the champion of platitudes.

Gingrich, Bachman and Perry have been discarded as useless and without merits altogether. Ron Paul, who comes across like a tamed Ross Perot of ions ago, will stay in the race for a few more weeks and could become important to plead allegeance with the ultimate Republican candidate, possibly making him a VP candidate in November.

But it is clear to this commentator that Barack Obama can look forward to the election with calm confidence from here on.

Fuck the mullahs

Iran "warned" today the US not to return an aircraft carrier to the Arabian Gulf. The commander of the carrier USS John C Stennis replied appropriately: "Challenge us, and you'll regret it." Let the game commence....

Safe in Paris

My fears of "Here goes the neighbourhood" have been alleviated today with the announcement that Brit ghetto shits David and Victoria Beckham will not join PSG after all. The transfer to Paris reportedly collapsed as the Beckhams failed to say "ça va" even after 22,611 attempts and the temporary requisition of 8 French teachers.

FX

Euro hovers near record lows
The euro opens the new year where it left off in 2011: against the dollar near the 14-month low (currently at $1.2933), a 2-year low against Sterling (£0.8340) and at a new 10-year low against the Yen (¥99.45), with a bearish outlook on the common currency.

The Lies that Spawned the Euro

The truths about the lies of the euro - from its inception to the current rescue attempts - as described in the German mag DER SPIEGEL. An eye-opening read...
http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spiegel.de%2Finternational%2Feurope%2F0%2C1518%2C806469%2C00.html&h=mAQEBwn4vAQEdLsKZKs8qtWkiBLyvIvRvmCwfQ-BWUZS_Aw

Dig This!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16320945

The "Sweet" Vienna

Damn, it must be hard to be a diabetic...
http://tvthek.orf.at/programs/2745173-Aufgetischt/episodes/3381567-Aufgetischt--Im-suessen-Wien

2012 Predictions

PREDICTIONS FOR 2012

Here are my predictions for what promises to be another tumultuous year of big events that will shape the world for years to come

Potentially new leaders in all Superpowers will come into office, adding uncertainty and polarisation of global conflicts.

A new leader will be acclaimed in Communist China;

A new (but familiar) leader will occupy the Kremlin: Vladimir Putin;

A new French president, the socialist Hollande, will be elected, together with a new French National Assembly, with a distinctly anti-euro bias;

Sarkozy will sink into obscurity other than legal proceedings might haunt him soon;

Neujahrskonzert 2012

Das Jahr 2012 hat offiziell begonnen: mit dem Neujahrskonzert, Wien's jaehrliches musikalisches Lebenszeichen, haben alle mitbekommen, dass es die Welt wie wir sie 2011 kannten noch gibt.

Dieses Neujahrskonzert ist so ziemlich das beste das ich je verfolgt habe (und das sind mittlererweile sicher schon 30). Gluecklich gewaehlt war der Dirigent (Mariss Jansons aus Lettland), dessen Musikauswahl und Praesentation perfekt fuer den Anlass waren. Die begleitenden Filmbeitraege, besonders der Teil waehrend der Pause, waren grossartig. Alles in allem, ein Genuss fuer Augen und Ohren.

Farewell to 2011

The amazing end of 2011: what beats celebrating the turn of the year along the Embankment in London? The same even ON the Seine, and that's just what we did. Amazing (and proving Emily right, again).

2012

Bonne année et bonne santé!